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CHINA CONSUMER DURABLES:FEB 2020 APPLIANCE TRACKER:ONLINE OU

In this inaugural edition of our monthly appliance tracker, we look at key metricsincluding ex-factory shipment for major white goods, offline & online retail salestrend for key appliance products, property sales and completion as well as keycommodity prices. We summarize the key trends in Feb 2020 below.

    Not surprisingly, AC total ex-factory shipment volume declined by 41.5% in Feb, with67.3% decrease in domestic market and 13.2% decrease in export due to the impactof COVID-19 on labour supply and logistics. Though Feb washing machines andrefrigerators data has not come out yet, we expect a similar drop for these twocategories. Factories are currently prioritizing export orders. We expect revenuegrowth for companies with higher overseas exposure to perform better in 1Q20 asexport ex-factory shipment declined less than domestic shipment. Yet there will beincreasing uncertainty on exports as the virus outbreak spreads globally.



    On retail sales, we have seen a general slowdown for most products in the offlinechannel due to store closures. In online channels, despite soft performance of majorwhite goods and traditional kitchen appliances, sales of dishwashers and smallkitchen appliances grew significantly in Feb as an increasing portion of the Chinesepopulation has been staying at home. On ASP, we see the highest pricing pressurefor AC whose ASP declined by c.30% in both offline and online channels. Amid weakdemand, market shares continue to concentrate towards leading companies. Wehighlight Haier, which is gaining online share in all major white goods including AC.

    On the property market, the ongoing property completion trend was disrupted asnew completions declined by 24% in Jan-Feb, which will have a negative impact onappliance sales to the developer channel in 1Q20. We expect the completion trendto resume as construction activities recover. We see limited cost inflation risk as keycommodity prices stay at low level primarily due to weak demand.

    We highlight Haier Electronics (Buy, on CL). Haier is strengthening its leadership inthe core washing machine and water heater markets and also gaining share in ACwhere it used to be a laggard. It has limited revenue exposure (c.5%) to overseasmarkets. With 12-m forward P/E approaching historical low, we reiterate Buy.

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